Beaches—East York federal by-election — August 31, 2026
How to read this: RidingWatch models general-election outcomes riding by riding. By-elections behave differently — turnout is far lower, candidates matter more, and national polling matters less. The projection below is the model's current read of the riding under general-election conditions, published before the vote so the result can be scored against it. After Elections Canada certifies the result, it will be folded into the model and reported on this page.
Why this seat is vacant
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith (Liberal) resigned July 7, 2026. Under RidingWatch methodology the riding is treated as an open seat: no incumbency adjustment applies to any party.
Key dates
| Writ issued | July 26, 2026 |
| Advance polls | August 21–24, 2026 |
| Vote by mail / at any Elections Canada office — deadline | August 25, 2026, 6:00 p.m. |
| Polling day | August 31, 2026 |
Dates per Elections Canada. Voting logistics, ID requirements, and polling locations: elections.ca.
What the model currently says (general-election conditions)
Deterministic projection from the current national polling average, as of 2026-08-04. Full riding detail, probabilities, and history: Beaches—East York riding page.
2025 general election result
Liberal 68% · Conservative 24% · NDP 7% · Green 1.3%
Candidates
Candidate list will appear here once confirmed by Elections Canada. Check the official candidate list in the meantime.