https://ridingwatch.ca/briefing/ Weekly briefings from Canada's federal seat-projection model. CC BY-NC 4.0. en-ca Fri, 19 Jun 2026 16:27:43 GMT https://ridingwatch.ca/briefing/2026-06-19/ https://ridingwatch.ca/briefing/2026-06-19/ Fri, 19 Jun 2026 16:00:00 GMT As of June 19, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 201 of 343 seats, ahead of the Conservatives at 110, with the Bloc Québécois at 21, the NDP at 9, and the Greens at 2. The week's movement is concentrated between the two front-runners. The Liberals gain 4 seats to reach 201, while the Conservatives lose 4 to fall to 110. That swing tracks a 1-point Conservative decline in the polling average to 34%, with Liberal support at 44% unchanged. The NDP at 9 seats, the Bloc at 21, and the Greens at 2 all hold steady, leaving a net transfer of marginal seats from the Conservative column to the Liberal one. https://ridingwatch.ca/briefing/2026-06-08/ https://ridingwatch.ca/briefing/2026-06-08/ Mon, 08 Jun 2026 16:00:00 GMT As of June 8, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 114. Compared with the previous point, the Liberals lose 4 seats (197), the Conservatives gain 2 seats (114), the NDP gain 2 seats (9).