Abacus federal poll — July 16, 2026

National vote intention

Bloc Québécois support is tracked as a Quebec share (30%); the bar above shows the approximate national equivalent.

Method: Online. Sample: 4,205. Field period ends July 16, 2026 (pollster-published; see source for full field dates).

Source: Abacus — original release

How this feeds the projection

RidingWatch blends every recent poll into a time-decayed, sample-weighted national average, which drives the seat model. See the full poll archive, the live projection dashboard, and the published timeline dataset.