Nanos federal poll — September 25, 2026

Liberal +22n = 1,022Phone + Online

National vote intention

Liberal

49.9%

Conservative

27.9%

NDP

11%

Bloc Québécois

Green

3.5%

Bloc Québécois support is tracked as a Quebec share (24%); the bar above shows the approximate national equivalent.

Rolling tracker: this wave overlaps an earlier wave already in the RidingWatch average, so only its fresh portion (25% of the sample) adds new weight.

Method: Phone + Online. Sample: 1,022. Field period ends September 25, 2026 (pollster-published; see source for full field dates).

Source: Nanos — original release

How this feeds the projection

RidingWatch blends every recent poll into a time-decayed, sample-weighted national average, which drives the seat model. See the full poll archive, the live projection dashboard, and the published timeline dataset.