Lac-Saint-Louis — Election Outlook & Projection
Where this riding stands
The RidingWatch model currently projects the Liberals at 71.7% in Lac-Saint-Louis, 55.5 points ahead of the Conservatives at 16.2%, with the NDP at 6.1%, the Bloc Québécois at 3%, the Greens at 3%. Across 10,000 simulations the seat goes to the Liberals in >99% of them. The simulations put the Liberals' share anywhere from 63% to 79%, and the Conservatives' from 10% to 22%.
In April 2025 the Liberals won here with 68%, 44 points ahead of the Conservatives. The Liberals also held it in 2021. Compared with the 2025 result, the current projection has the Conservatives down 7.8, the Liberals up 3.7, the NDP up 3.1 points. These shifts come from the national polling swing applied to this riding's past results — not from riding-level polling, which the model does not have.
The sitting member is Francis Scarpaleggia (Liberal), MP since 2002.
Rating: Safe Liberal — the Liberals lead by a margin the model treats as decisive on current polling. In practical terms, a 55.5-point projected margin is wider than the swings the model produces in most ridings; a different result would need a local shift that national polling doesn't currently show. No other party is within 10 points of the lead on these numbers, though the Conservatives at 16.2% clear the model's 15% viability floor. Every vote counts toward a party's national total regardless of the local outcome. The Strategic Voting Assistant below shows how these standings look for a specific goal, including simply voting for your first choice.
Sitting member
About this riding
This Montreal Island riding encompasses communities in the southwestern portion of Montreal Island bordering the St. Lawrence and other waterways. The area features residential neighbourhoods of varying affluence with waterfront areas providing scenic character. Parks and recreational facilities take advantage of water features. The riding contains commercial corridors and institutional facilities serving local populations. Access to regional transportation networks facilitates connections to broader Montreal area employment and services. The neighbourhood character reflects mid-twentieth century suburban development patterns.
Projected Vote Share — Next Federal Election
Projected using a blended proportional-uniform swing model with incumbency adjustments. Based on the current national polling average and regional crosstabs as of 2026-09-14.
Vote-share trend
2021 and 2025 are official results for this riding; the third point is the current model projection. No estimated historical points are shown.
2025 Election Results vs. Current Projection
| Party | 2025 Vote % | Projected % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 68% | 71.7% | +3.7 |
| Conservative | 24% | 16.2% | -7.8 |
| NDP | 3% | 6.1% | +3.1 |
| Bloc Québécois | 4% | 3% | -1 |
| Green | 1.4% | 3% | +1.6 |
Strategic Voting Assistant
Reasoning uses the current projected shares for this riding. Viability = within 10 points of the leader or at least 15%.
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About the Model
This projection is generated by the RidingWatch statistical model, which combines national polling data with historical election results to estimate vote shares and likely outcomes in each of Canada's 343 federal ridings.
The model begins with a weighted blend of results from the 2025 and 2021 federal elections, then applies the polling swing to each riding using a mostly-uniform (90/10 uniform/proportional) swing method — the national swing, adjusted by the province's pooled deviation where pollsters publish regional crosstabs. No pollster house effects are applied. Incumbency is not assumed: only first-term MPs (+1) and party leaders (+2) receive an adjustment. Uncertainty is estimated through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with correlated regional errors.
Projections are updated as new polling data becomes available. All estimates are probabilistic — they represent the most likely outcome given current information, not a guarantee of any result. Actual election outcomes depend on factors the model cannot fully capture, including local campaigns, turnout variation, and late-breaking events.