Mégantic—L'Érable—Lotbinière — Election Outlook & Projection
Where this riding stands
The RidingWatch model currently projects the Conservatives at 53.5% in Mégantic—L'Érable—Lotbinière, 28.2 points ahead of the Liberals at 25.3%, with the Bloc Québécois at 16.2%, the NDP at 3%, the Greens at 2%. Across 10,000 simulations the seat goes to the Conservatives in >99% of them. The simulations put the Conservatives' share anywhere from 47% to 59%, and the Liberals' from 19% to 31%.
In April 2025 the Conservatives won here with 59%, 38 points ahead of the Liberals. The Conservatives also held it in 2021. Compared with the 2025 result, the current projection has the Conservatives down 5.5, the Liberals up 4.3, the Greens up 2 points. These shifts come from the national polling swing applied to this riding's past results — not from riding-level polling, which the model does not have.
The sitting member is Luc Berthold (Conservative), MP since 2015.
Rating: Safe Conservative — the Conservatives lead by a margin the model treats as decisive on current polling. In practical terms, a 28.2-point projected margin is wider than the swings the model produces in most ridings; a different result would need a local shift that national polling doesn't currently show. No other party is within 10 points of the lead on these numbers, though the Liberals at 25.3% and the Bloc Québécois at 16.2% clear the model's 15% viability floor. Every vote counts toward a party's national total regardless of the local outcome. The Strategic Voting Assistant below shows how these standings look for a specific goal, including simply voting for your first choice.
Sitting member
About this riding
Located in the south-central region between Montreal and Quebec City, this riding encompasses small towns and rural communities in the Appalachian transitional landscape. Communities like Thetford Mines have asbestos mining heritage reflecting historic industrial activity. The terrain features rolling hills and forests with agricultural areas and small villages. Manufacturing and forestry provide economic activity alongside agriculture. The riding represents rural Quebec character with established small towns serving surrounding agricultural regions. Heritage and landscape features provide tourism potential.
Projected Vote Share — Next Federal Election
Projected using a blended proportional-uniform swing model with incumbency adjustments. Based on the current national polling average and regional crosstabs as of 2026-09-14.
Vote-share trend
2021 and 2025 are official results for this riding; the third point is the current model projection. No estimated historical points are shown.
2025 Election Results vs. Current Projection
| Party | 2025 Vote % | Projected % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 21% | 25.3% | +4.3 |
| Conservative | 59% | 53.5% | -5.5 |
| NDP | 2% | 3% | +1 |
| Bloc Québécois | 16% | 16.2% | +0.2 |
| Green | 0% | 2% | +2 |
Strategic Voting Assistant
Reasoning uses the current projected shares for this riding. Viability = within 10 points of the leader or at least 15%.
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About the Model
This projection is generated by the RidingWatch statistical model, which combines national polling data with historical election results to estimate vote shares and likely outcomes in each of Canada's 343 federal ridings.
The model begins with a weighted blend of results from the 2025 and 2021 federal elections, then applies the polling swing to each riding using a mostly-uniform (90/10 uniform/proportional) swing method — the national swing, adjusted by the province's pooled deviation where pollsters publish regional crosstabs. No pollster house effects are applied. Incumbency is not assumed: only first-term MPs (+1) and party leaders (+2) receive an adjustment. Uncertainty is estimated through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with correlated regional errors.
Projections are updated as new polling data becomes available. All estimates are probabilistic — they represent the most likely outcome given current information, not a guarantee of any result. Actual election outcomes depend on factors the model cannot fully capture, including local campaigns, turnout variation, and late-breaking events.