Montmorency—Charlevoix — Election Outlook & Projection
SEO Summary
Montmorency—Charlevoix is a federal riding in Quebec. In the current Riding Watch projection, Bloc Québécois leads with 33% of the projected vote, 1 points ahead of Conservative. The riding is rated Tossup — Highly competitive — either party could win. In the 2025 federal election, Conservative won with 32%, but the seat is now projected to swing to Bloc Québécois. Either party could realistically win this riding, making it a key battleground.
Projected Vote Share — Next Federal Election
Projected using a blended proportional-uniform swing model with incumbency adjustments. Based on current national and regional polling averages as of 2026-05-05.
2025 Election Results vs. Current Projection
| Party | 2025 Vote % | Projected % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 28.7% | 31% | +2.3 |
| Conservative | 34.7% | 32% | -2.7 |
| NDP | 2% | 2% | 0 |
| Bloc Québécois | 33.7% | 33% | -0.7 |
| Green | 1% | 2% | +1 |
About the Model
This projection is generated by the RidingWatch statistical model, which combines national and regional polling data with historical election results to estimate vote shares and likely outcomes in each of Canada's 343 federal ridings.
The model begins with a weighted blend of results from the 2025 and 2021 federal elections, then applies polling-driven vote swings at the provincial level using a proportional-uniform swing method. Incumbency effects and riding-specific contextual factors are incorporated where applicable. Uncertainty is estimated through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with correlated regional errors.
Projections are updated as new polling data becomes available. All estimates are probabilistic — they represent the most likely outcome given current information, not a guarantee of any result. Actual election outcomes depend on factors the model cannot fully capture, including local campaigns, turnout variation, and late-breaking events.
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