North Vancouver—Capilano — Election Outlook & Projection
Where this riding stands
The RidingWatch model currently projects the Liberals at 60.4% in North Vancouver—Capilano, 38.6 points ahead of the Conservatives at 21.8%, with the NDP at 8.9%, the Greens at 8.9%. Across 10,000 simulations the seat goes to the Liberals in >99% of them. The simulations put the Liberals' share anywhere from 54% to 68%, and the Conservatives' from 16% to 28%.
In April 2025 the Liberals won here with 60%, 26 points ahead of the Conservatives. The Liberals also held it in 2021. In the August 31, 2026 by-election the Liberals won with 58.6%, 29.4 points ahead of the Conservatives at 29.2% (Elections Canada figures, preliminary — validation pending). The model uses that by-election result, not the 2025 result, as this riding's starting point, with Braeden Caley (Liberal) as the sitting member; no incumbency adjustment is added on top of a by-election result. Compared with the by-election result, the current projection has the Conservatives down 7.4, the NDP up 5.8, the Liberals up 1.8 points. These shifts come from the national polling swing applied to this riding's past results — not from riding-level polling, which the model does not have.
The sitting member is Braeden Caley (Liberal), MP since 2026. Elected in the August 31, 2026 by-election.
Rating: Safe Liberal — the Liberals lead by a margin the model treats as decisive on current polling. In practical terms, a 38.6-point projected margin is wider than the swings the model produces in most ridings; a different result would need a local shift that national polling doesn't currently show. No other party is within 10 points of the lead on these numbers, though the Conservatives at 21.8% clear the model's 15% viability floor. Every vote counts toward a party's national total regardless of the local outcome. The Strategic Voting Assistant below shows how these standings look for a specific goal, including simply voting for your first choice.
Sitting member
About this riding
Positioned on the North Shore of Burrard Inlet, this Metro Vancouver riding encompasses North Vancouver and includes the scenic Capilano River valley. Residential neighbourhoods range from established communities to newer developments. Mountain terrain rises dramatically northward, providing green space and natural boundaries. The Capilano suspension bridge area represents a major tourist attraction. The North Shore mountains are iconic geographic features. The riding combines suburban residential development with significant natural amenities and recreational access.
Projected Vote Share — Next Federal Election
Projected using a blended proportional-uniform swing model with incumbency adjustments. Based on the current national polling average and regional crosstabs as of 2026-09-14. Because this riding held a by-election on August 31, 2026, the model applies the swing to that result rather than to the April 2025 result.
Vote-share trend
2021, 2025 and the August 31, 2026 by-election are official Elections Canada results for this riding (by-election figures preliminary — validation pending); the last point is the current model projection. No estimated historical points are shown.
Election results vs. current projection
Liberal won the August 31, 2026 by-election here with 58.6% (Elections Canada figures, preliminary — validation pending). The "Change" column compares the projection with that by-election result, the most recent vote in this riding.
| Party | 2025 Vote % | 2026 by-election % | Projected % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 60% | 58.6% | 60.4% | +1.8 |
| Conservative | 34% | 29.2% | 21.8% | -7.4 |
| NDP | 4% | 3.1% | 8.9% | +5.8 |
| Green | 1.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | +0.2 |
Strategic Voting Assistant
Reasoning uses the current projected shares for this riding. Viability = within 10 points of the leader or at least 15%.
Explore More Ridings
Vancouver Granville Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies Burnaby North—Seymour Vancouver Centre Vancouver Quadra
About the Model
This projection is generated by the RidingWatch statistical model, which combines national polling data with historical election results to estimate vote shares and likely outcomes in each of Canada's 343 federal ridings.
The model begins with a weighted blend of results from the 2025 and 2021 federal elections, then applies the polling swing to each riding using a mostly-uniform (90/10 uniform/proportional) swing method — the national swing, adjusted by the province's pooled deviation where pollsters publish regional crosstabs. No pollster house effects are applied. Incumbency is not assumed: only first-term MPs (+1) and party leaders (+2) receive an adjustment. Uncertainty is estimated through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with correlated regional errors.
Projections are updated as new polling data becomes available. All estimates are probabilistic — they represent the most likely outcome given current information, not a guarantee of any result. Actual election outcomes depend on factors the model cannot fully capture, including local campaigns, turnout variation, and late-breaking events.