Terrebonne — Election Outlook & Projection
Where this riding stands
The RidingWatch model currently projects the Liberals at 49.5% in Terrebonne, 4.9 points ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 44.6%, with the NDP at 3%, the Greens at 2%. Across 10,000 simulations the seat goes to the Liberals in 84% of them, the Bloc Québécois in 16%. The simulations put the Liberals' share anywhere from 43% to 55%, and the Bloc Québécois’ from 39% to 48%.
The April 2025 result here — the Liberals 38.7%, the Bloc Québécois 38.7% — was annulled by the Supreme Court of Canada after an Elections Canada ballot error, and a by-election was ordered. The Bloc Québécois held the seat after 2021. Compared with the by-election result, the current projection has the NDP up 2.5, the Conservatives down 2.3, the Bloc Québécois down 2.3 points. These shifts come from the national polling swing applied to this riding's past results — not from riding-level polling, which the model does not have.
The sitting member is Tatiana Auguste (Liberal), MP since 2026. Elected in the April 13, 2026 by-election.
Rating: Likely Liberal — the Liberals are ahead in most simulations. In practical terms, the Liberals are ahead in most simulations, but the Bloc Québécois win in 16% of them — the outcome is probable, not fixed. Within 10 points of the lead: the Bloc Québécois (44.6%). Every vote counts toward a party's national total regardless of the local outcome. The Strategic Voting Assistant below shows how these standings look for a specific goal, including simply voting for your first choice.
Sitting member
About this riding
Situated in the greater Montreal region north of Montreal Island, this riding encompasses the city of Terrebonne and surrounding areas. Terrebonne developed as a suburban city with planned neighbourhoods, commercial centres, and institutional facilities. The landscape features relatively flat terrain with parks and green space integration. Residential neighbourhoods range from established suburbs to newer developments. The Rivière-des-Mille-Îles provides geographic definition. Modern infrastructure facilitates commuting to Montreal employment centres. The riding represents planned suburban development in immediate Montreal periphery.
Projected Vote Share — Next Federal Election
Projected using a blended proportional-uniform swing model with incumbency adjustments. Based on the current national polling average and regional crosstabs as of 2026-09-14. Because this riding held a by-election on April 13, 2026, the model applies the swing to that result rather than to the April 2025 result.
Vote-share trend
2021, 2025 and the April 13, 2026 by-election are official Elections Canada results for this riding (by-election figures validated by the returning officer); the last point is the current model projection. No estimated historical points are shown.
Election results vs. current projection
Liberal won the April 13, 2026 by-election here with 48.3% (Elections Canada figures, validated by the returning officer). The "Change" column compares the projection with that by-election result, the most recent vote in this riding.
| Party | 2025 Vote % | 2026 by-election % | Projected % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 38.7% | 48.3% | 49.5% | +1.2 |
| Conservative | 18.2% | 3.3% | 1% | -2.3 |
| NDP | 2.6% | 0.5% | 3% | +2.5 |
| Bloc Québécois | 38.7% | 46.9% | 44.6% | -2.3 |
| Green | 1% | 0.4% | 2% | +1.6 |
Strategic Voting Assistant
Reasoning uses the current projected shares for this riding. Viability = within 10 points of the leader or at least 15%.
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About the Model
This projection is generated by the RidingWatch statistical model, which combines national polling data with historical election results to estimate vote shares and likely outcomes in each of Canada's 343 federal ridings.
The model begins with a weighted blend of results from the 2025 and 2021 federal elections, then applies the polling swing to each riding using a mostly-uniform (90/10 uniform/proportional) swing method — the national swing, adjusted by the province's pooled deviation where pollsters publish regional crosstabs. No pollster house effects are applied. Incumbency is not assumed: only first-term MPs (+1) and party leaders (+2) receive an adjustment. Uncertainty is estimated through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with correlated regional errors.
Projections are updated as new polling data becomes available. All estimates are probabilistic — they represent the most likely outcome given current information, not a guarantee of any result. Actual election outcomes depend on factors the model cannot fully capture, including local campaigns, turnout variation, and late-breaking events.