Nanos federal poll — October 16, 2026

Liberal +22.3n = 1,016Phone + Online

National vote intention

Liberal

50.6%

Conservative

28.3%

NDP

11.5%

Bloc Québécois

Green

2.2%

Bloc Québécois support is tracked as a Quebec share (27%); the bar above shows the approximate national equivalent.

Rolling tracker: this wave overlaps an earlier wave already in the RidingWatch average, so only its fresh portion (25% of the sample) adds new weight.

Method: Phone + Online. Sample: 1,016. Field period ends October 16, 2026 (pollster-published; see source for full field dates).

Source: Nanos — original release

How this feeds the projection

RidingWatch blends every recent poll into a time-decayed, sample-weighted national average, which drives the seat model. See the full poll archive, the live projection dashboard, and the published timeline dataset.