Liaison federal poll — October 17, 2026

Liberal +15n = 1,000IVR

National vote intention

Liberal

45%

Conservative

30%

NDP

14%

Bloc Québécois

Green

Bloc Québécois support is tracked as a Quebec share (25%); the bar above shows the approximate national equivalent.

Rolling tracker: this wave overlaps an earlier wave already in the RidingWatch average, so only its fresh portion (50% of the sample) adds new weight.

Method: IVR. Sample: 1,000. Field period ends October 17, 2026 (pollster-published; see source for full field dates).

Source: Liaison — original release

How this feeds the projection

RidingWatch blends every recent poll into a time-decayed, sample-weighted national average, which drives the seat model. See the full poll archive, the live projection dashboard, and the published timeline dataset.