Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake — Election Outlook & Projection
Where this riding stands
The RidingWatch model currently projects the Liberals at 48% in Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake, 8 points ahead of the Conservatives at 40%, with the NDP at 9%, the Greens at 3%. Across 10,000 simulations the seat goes to the Liberals in 88% of them, the Conservatives in 12%. The simulations put the Liberals' share anywhere from 41% to 54%, and the Conservatives' from 34% to 46%.
In April 2025 the Conservatives won here with 49%, 4 points ahead of the Liberals. The Conservatives also held it in 2021. Compared with the 2025 result, the current projection has the Conservatives down 9, the NDP up 5, the Liberals up 3 points. These shifts come from the national polling swing applied to this riding's past results — not from riding-level polling, which the model does not have.
The sitting member is Tony Baldinelli (Conservative), MP since 2019.
Rating: Likely Liberal — the Liberals are ahead in most simulations. In practical terms, the Liberals are ahead in most simulations, but the Conservatives win in 12% of them — the outcome is probable, not fixed. Within 10 points of the lead: the Conservatives (40%). Every vote counts toward a party's national total regardless of the local outcome. The Strategic Voting Assistant below shows how these standings look for a specific goal, including simply voting for your first choice.
Sitting member
About this riding
Located in southwestern Ontario along the Niagara River, this riding encompasses Niagara Falls city and the historic town of Niagara-on-the-Lake. Niagara Falls is a major tourism destination featuring the iconic falls and surrounding attractions. Niagara-on-the-Lake is a historic heritage community. The riding features urban Niagara Falls with tourism infrastructure and attractions alongside the historic character of Niagara-on-the-Lake. The local economy is centred on tourism, hospitality, and heritage services. The Niagara River and falls provide defining environmental and economic features.
Projected Vote Share — Next Federal Election
Projected using a blended proportional-uniform swing model with incumbency adjustments. Based on the current national polling average and regional crosstabs as of 2026-09-14.
Vote-share trend
2021 and 2025 are official results for this riding; the third point is the current model projection. No estimated historical points are shown.
2025 Election Results vs. Current Projection
| Party | 2025 Vote % | Projected % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 45% | 48% | +3 |
| Conservative | 49% | 40% | -9 |
| NDP | 4% | 9% | +5 |
| Green | 0.9% | 3% | +2.1 |
Strategic Voting Assistant
Reasoning uses the current projected shares for this riding. Viability = within 10 points of the leader or at least 15%.
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About the Model
This projection is generated by the RidingWatch statistical model, which combines national polling data with historical election results to estimate vote shares and likely outcomes in each of Canada's 343 federal ridings.
The model begins with a weighted blend of results from the 2025 and 2021 federal elections, then applies the polling swing to each riding using a mostly-uniform (90/10 uniform/proportional) swing method — the national swing, adjusted by the province's pooled deviation where pollsters publish regional crosstabs. No pollster house effects are applied. Incumbency is not assumed: only first-term MPs (+1) and party leaders (+2) receive an adjustment. Uncertainty is estimated through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with correlated regional errors.
Projections are updated as new polling data becomes available. All estimates are probabilistic — they represent the most likely outcome given current information, not a guarantee of any result. Actual election outcomes depend on factors the model cannot fully capture, including local campaigns, turnout variation, and late-breaking events.