University—Rosedale — Election Outlook & Projection
Where this riding stands
The RidingWatch model currently projects the Liberals at 64.4% in University—Rosedale, 41.6 points ahead of the NDP at 22.8%, with the Conservatives at 7.9%, the Greens at 5%. Across 10,000 simulations the seat goes to the Liberals in >99% of them. The simulations put the Liberals' share anywhere from 58% to 72%, and the NDP's from 17% to 27%.
In April 2025 the Liberals won here with 64%, 40.5 points ahead of the Conservatives. The Liberals also held it in 2021. In the April 13, 2026 by-election the Liberals won with 64.3%, 45.4 points ahead of the NDP at 18.9% (Elections Canada figures, validated by the returning officer). The model uses that by-election result, not the 2025 result, as this riding's starting point, with Danielle Martin (Liberal) as the sitting member; no incumbency adjustment is added on top of a by-election result. Compared with the by-election result, the current projection has the Conservatives down 4.5, the NDP up 3.9, the Greens up 2.1 points. These shifts come from the national polling swing applied to this riding's past results — not from riding-level polling, which the model does not have.
The sitting member is Danielle Martin (Liberal), MP since 2026. Elected in the April 13, 2026 by-election.
Rating: Safe Liberal — the Liberals lead by a margin the model treats as decisive on current polling. In practical terms, a 41.6-point projected margin is wider than the swings the model produces in most ridings; a different result would need a local shift that national polling doesn't currently show. No other party is within 10 points of the lead on these numbers, though the NDP at 22.8% clear the model's 15% viability floor. Every vote counts toward a party's national total regardless of the local outcome. The Strategic Voting Assistant below shows how these standings look for a specific goal, including simply voting for your first choice.
Sitting member
About this riding
Located in north-central Toronto, University—Rosedale encompasses the University of Toronto campus area and Rosedale neighbourhood. The riding features the university's iconic buildings, parks, and surrounding residential communities. Population is urban and diverse, including students, university employees, faculty, and residents. The local economy is heavily influenced by university presence including services, retail, and education-related employment. The neighbourhood combines academic and residential character.
Projected Vote Share — Next Federal Election
Projected using a blended proportional-uniform swing model with incumbency adjustments. Based on the current national polling average and regional crosstabs as of 2026-09-14. Because this riding held a by-election on April 13, 2026, the model applies the swing to that result rather than to the April 2025 result.
Vote-share trend
2021, 2025 and the April 13, 2026 by-election are official Elections Canada results for this riding (by-election figures validated by the returning officer); the last point is the current model projection. No estimated historical points are shown.
Election results vs. current projection
Liberal won the April 13, 2026 by-election here with 64.3% (Elections Canada figures, validated by the returning officer). The "Change" column compares the projection with that by-election result, the most recent vote in this riding.
| Party | 2025 Vote % | 2026 by-election % | Projected % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 64% | 64.3% | 64.4% | +0.1 |
| Conservative | 23.5% | 12.4% | 7.9% | -4.5 |
| NDP | 9.9% | 18.9% | 22.8% | +3.9 |
| Green | 1.7% | 2.9% | 5% | +2.1 |
Strategic Voting Assistant
Reasoning uses the current projected shares for this riding. Viability = within 10 points of the leader or at least 15%.
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About the Model
This projection is generated by the RidingWatch statistical model, which combines national polling data with historical election results to estimate vote shares and likely outcomes in each of Canada's 343 federal ridings.
The model begins with a weighted blend of results from the 2025 and 2021 federal elections, then applies the polling swing to each riding using a mostly-uniform (90/10 uniform/proportional) swing method — the national swing, adjusted by the province's pooled deviation where pollsters publish regional crosstabs. No pollster house effects are applied. Incumbency is not assumed: only first-term MPs (+1) and party leaders (+2) receive an adjustment. Uncertainty is estimated through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with correlated regional errors.
Projections are updated as new polling data becomes available. All estimates are probabilistic — they represent the most likely outcome given current information, not a guarantee of any result. Actual election outcomes depend on factors the model cannot fully capture, including local campaigns, turnout variation, and late-breaking events.