Liberals hold 197 seats with 97% majority probability. LPC 44% polling lead over CPC 35%. Seat projections, scenario analysis, and riding-level detail. The national polling average stands at LPC 44%, CPC 35%, NDP 9%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%.
Compared with the previous point, the Liberals lose 4 seats (197), the Conservatives gain 2 seats (114), the NDP gain 2 seats (9).
The majority threshold is 172 seats. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline, and the riding directory for all 343 local projections.
The tightest projection in the country is Central Newfoundland, where the margin is under 1 point. Other competitive ridings include Beaches—East York and Scarborough Southwest. In total, 49 ridings sit within a 5-point margin — these are the contests most likely to determine the majority threshold.
The seat projection shifted by 4 seats from the previous update. The Liberals dropped to 197 while the Conservatives rose to 114 and the NDP gained 2 seats to reach 9, reflecting marginal movement in the polling average where CPC ticked up to 35% against an unchanged LPC 44%.