As of June 8, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 114. The national polling average stands at LPC 44%, CPC 35%, NDP 9%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%.
Compared with the previous point, the Liberals lose 4 seats (197), the Conservatives gain 2 seats (114), the NDP gain 2 seats (9).
The majority threshold is 172 seats. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline, and the riding directory for all 343 local projections.