Sep 14, 2026 — As of September 14, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 219 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 87, after a methodology update.
Sep 10, 2026 — As of September 10, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, the Conservatives at 109, the Bloc at 23, the NDP at 12 and the Greens at 2.
Sep 8, 2026 — As of September 8, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, the Conservatives at 109, the Bloc at 23, the NDP at 12 and the Greens at 2.
Sep 4, 2026 — As of September 4, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 109.
Aug 31, 2026 — As of August 31, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 109.
Aug 24, 2026 — As of August 24, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 109.
Aug 19, 2026 — As of August 19, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 188 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 118.
Aug 10, 2026 — As of August 10, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 189 of 343 seats and the Conservatives at 119, with the Bloc Québécois at 23, the NDP at 10, and the Greens at 2.
Jul 30, 2026 — As of July 30, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 188 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 118.
Jul 27, 2026 — As of July 27, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 187 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 122.
Jul 20, 2026 — Five new national polls leave the RidingWatch projection unchanged: Liberals 197 of 343 seats, Conservatives 114.
Jun 29, 2026 — As of June 29, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 114.
Jun 23, 2026 — As of June 23, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 114 and a 97% chance of a Liberal majority.
Jun 19, 2026 — As of June 19, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 201 of 343 seats, ahead of the Conservatives at 110, with the Bloc Québécois at 21, the NDP at 9, and the Greens at 2.
Jun 8, 2026 — As of June 8, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 114.