As of August 19, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 188 of 343 seats, the Conservatives at 118, the NDP at 12, the Bloc Québécois at 23 and the Greens at 2. The national polling average stands at LPC 43%, CPC 35%, NDP 10%, BQ 6% and GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 93%. New polls from Liaison, Nanos and Abacus entered the average this week.
Compared with the previous update, the NDP gain 2 seats to 12, while the Liberals lose 1 seat to 188 and the Conservatives lose 1 to 118. The seat movement follows a polling-average change of NDP +1 point, with the other four parties unchanged. Small national shifts can move several seats at once where a party's support is concentrated in close ridings, which is how a 1-point NDP change translates into 2 seats here.
The majority threshold is 172 seats. Pollsters disagree on Quebec this week, and the model averages across firms rather than following any single one; additional waves will settle the picture. By-elections are scheduled for August 31 in Beaches—East York, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord and North Vancouver—Capilano, and certified results will be folded into the model once available. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline.