As of August 31, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, the Conservatives at 109, the NDP at 12, the Bloc Québécois at 23 and the Greens at 2. The national polling average stands at LPC 44%, CPC 34%, NDP 10%, BQ 7% and GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 97%. Three new polls entered the average this week, from Liaison, Abacus and Nanos.
Liberal candidates won all three of today's federal by-elections — Beaches—East York, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord and North Vancouver—Capilano — according to network projections. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord changes hands from the Conservatives, and the model now reflects the new Liberal members in all three ridings in its seat baseline and incumbency inputs; official per-riding vote shares will be folded in once Elections Canada publishes them. Compared with the previous update, the seat projection is unchanged for every party, on a polling-average change of BQ +1 point.
The majority threshold is 172 seats. This update reflects the by-election winners only; certified riding results enter the model in the next cycle. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline, and the riding directory for all 343 local projections.