As of September 8, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, the Conservatives at 109, the Bloc at 23, the NDP at 12 and the Greens at 2. The national polling average stands at LPC 44%, CPC 34%, NDP 10%, BQ 7%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 97%. This point folds in the latest Nanos four-week tracking wave and the latest Liaison Strategies tracker into the rolling average.
Every seat count is unchanged from the previous point, and the rounded polling average is unchanged for all five parties. The new tracker waves overlap the samples already in the average and are down-weighted for that overlap, so they refresh the average rather than move it. With no party changing at the national level, no riding crosses its projection threshold and the regional seat picture is identical to the previous update.
The majority threshold is 172 seats; the Liberal projection of 197 sits above it, and the 97% majority probability reflects the spread of outcomes across the simulations rather than a fixed result. The next points to watch are whether the monthly pollsters that have not yet reported in September confirm the tracker picture. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline, and the riding directory for all 343 local projections.