As of August 24, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, the Conservatives at 109, the NDP at 12, the Bloc Québécois at 23 and the Greens at 2. The national polling average stands at LPC 44%, CPC 34%, NDP 10%, BQ 6% and GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 97%. New polls from Liaison and Research Co. entered the average this week.
Compared with the previous update, the Liberals gain 9 seats to 197 and the Conservatives lose 9 seats to 109, on a polling-average change of LPC +1 point and CPC -1 point. Much of the movement traces to the Research Co. poll, the most Liberal-favourable in the current window, which entered the average backdated after being published on the day of the previous cycle. Where many ridings sit close to the line, a 1-point national change can move several seats at once.
The majority threshold is 172 seats. Liaison notes that only one day of its fielding followed the latest escalation in Canada-U.S. trade tensions, so the coming waves are the first that could register any effect; this update makes no claim about it. By-elections are scheduled for August 31 in Beaches—East York, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord and North Vancouver—Capilano, and certified results will be folded into the model once available. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline.