As of September 14, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 219 of 343 seats, the Conservatives at 87, the NDP at 14, the Bloc at 21 and the Greens at 2. The national polling average stands at LPC 45%, CPC 32%, NDP 11%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is >99%. This point adds three surveys published since the previous update — the latest Liaison Strategies tracker wave, the September Abacus Data wave and the September Léger federal poll — and is the first published under a revised model.
Compared with the previous point, the Liberals gain 22 seats to 219, the Conservatives lose 22 seats to 87, the NDP gain 2 seats to 14 and the Bloc Québécois lose 2 seats to 21; the Greens are unchanged at 2. In the rounded polling average the Liberals are up 1 point to 45%, the Conservatives are down 2 points to 32% and the NDP are up 1 point to 11%; the Bloc and Greens are unchanged. Most of that movement is methodological rather than new polling: pollster house-effect corrections calibrated to the April 2025 campaign have been removed, the blanket incumbency boost has been replaced by adjustments for first-term MPs and party leaders only, provincial 2025 baselines were corrected to Elections Canada figures, and published regional crosstabs now feed a pooled provincial adjustment. The Methodology page describes each change.
The majority threshold is 172 seats; the Liberal projection of 219 sits above it, and the >99% majority probability describes the spread of outcomes across the simulations rather than a fixed result. Because this point changes the model, week-over-week comparisons against earlier points mix methodology and polling; the next several cycles will show how the revised model moves on polling alone. Next to watch are the Nanos tracker wave due this week and the Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations vacancy that opens on September 18. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline, and the riding directory for all 343 local projections.