As of July 27, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 187 of 343 seats and the Conservatives at 122, with the NDP at 10, the Bloc Québécois at 22, and the Greens at 2. The national polling average stands at LPC 43%, CPC 36%, NDP 9%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 92%.
Compared with the previous point, the Liberals shed 10 seats to 187 while the Conservatives add 8 to reach 122; the NDP move up 1 seat to 10 and the Bloc up 1 to 22. The polling average shifted 1 point each way, LPC down 1 to 43% and CPC up 1 to 36%. Because many Liberal–Conservative riding margins are narrow, small national shifts translate into larger seat movement. This cycle also replaces one Liaison field window with two non-overlapping windows in the poll set.
The majority threshold is 172 seats, and the projection of 187 sits above it; the 92% majority probability tracks how often simulations clear that line. By-elections called for August 31 in Beaches—East York, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord and North Vancouver—Capilano are the next certified results the model can be tested against. Every figure traces to the published timeline; see the riding directory for all 343 local projections.