As of October 2, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 226 of 343 seats, the Conservatives at 81, the NDP at 13, the Bloc Québécois at 21 and the Greens at 2. The national polling average stands at LPC 46%, CPC 32%, NDP 11%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is >99%, with a 95% range of 190 to 252 Liberal seats. This point adds three surveys published since the previous update: the Liaison Strategies tracker wave fielded September 13 to 26, the weekly Nanos Research tracking wave ending September 25, and an Abacus Data survey fielded September 18 to 23.
The rounded Liberal figure in the polling average moves from 45% to 46%, while the Conservatives at 32%, the NDP at 11%, the Bloc Québécois at 6% and the Greens at 3% are each unchanged. In the seat projection, the Liberals gain 7 seats (219 to 226), the Conservatives lose 6 (87 to 81) and the NDP lose 1 (14 to 13), while the Bloc Québécois stay at 21 and the Greens at 2. A one-point move in a rounded average can shift several closely contested ridings at once, which is why the seat change is larger than the change in the polling average. In Nanos preferred-prime-minister tracking, Mark Carney stands at 61.5%, compared with 58.6% in the wave used at the previous point, and Pierre Poilievre is at 19.6%, compared with 21.3%.
The majority threshold is 172 seats; the Liberal projection of 226 sits above it, and the >99% majority probability describes the spread of simulated outcomes rather than a fixed result. Six seats remain vacant and awaiting a by-election, and no by-election has yet been called. Conservative MP Scott Aitchison has announced that he will resign Parry Sound—Muskoka at the end of the fall sitting; he remains the sitting member for now. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline, and the riding directory for all 343 local projections.