As of June 23, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 114, the New Democrats at 9, the Bloc Québécois at 21, and the Greens at 2. The national polling average stands at LPC 44%, CPC 35%, NDP 9%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 97%.
Compared with the previous point, the Conservatives gain 4 seats to reach 114, while the Liberals lose 4 to settle at 197. The movement follows a single point of change in the polling average, where the Conservative figure reaches 35% and the Liberal figure holds at 44%. A four-seat swing from one point of vote share reflects how narrow local margins translate modest national shifts into a larger seat result.
The majority threshold sits at 172 seats, and the Liberal projection of 197 remains above it. This week the model folded in new public polling, an Abacus wave and an Angus Reid survey, each weighted by recency and sample size alongside the existing series. These projections are probability statements rather than predictions of certainty; the Methodology page sets out the full pipeline, and the riding directory carries all 343 local projections.