As of June 19, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 201 of 343 seats, ahead of the Conservatives at 110, with the Bloc Québécois at 21, the NDP at 9, and the Greens at 2. The national polling average sits at LPC 44%, CPC 34%, NDP 9%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 99%.
The week's movement is concentrated between the two front-runners. The Liberals gain 4 seats to reach 201, while the Conservatives lose 4 to fall to 110. That swing tracks a 1-point Conservative decline in the polling average to 34%, with Liberal support at 44% unchanged. The NDP at 9 seats, the Bloc at 21, and the Greens at 2 all hold steady, leaving a net transfer of marginal seats from the Conservative column to the Liberal one.
With the Liberals at 201 seats and a 99% majority probability, the central question is durability rather than direction. Worth watching: whether the Conservative figure holds at 34% or moves further, and whether the NDP can convert its 9% polling share into more than 9 seats. The 172-seat majority threshold remains the reference line, and the next update will show whether this week's shift persists.