Liberals hold 201 seats with 99% majority probability. LPC 44% polling lead over CPC 34%. Seat projections, scenario analysis, and riding-level detail. The national polling average sits at LPC 44%, CPC 34%, NDP 9%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 99%.
The week's movement is concentrated between the two front-runners. The Liberals gain 4 seats to reach 201, while the Conservatives lose 4 to fall to 110. That swing tracks a 1-point Conservative decline in the polling average to 34%, with Liberal support at 44% unchanged. The NDP at 9 seats, the Bloc at 21, and the Greens at 2 all hold steady, leaving a net transfer of marginal seats from the Conservative column to the Liberal one.
With the Liberals at 201 seats and a 99% majority probability, the central question is durability rather than direction. Worth watching: whether the Conservative figure holds at 34% or moves further, and whether the NDP can convert its 9% polling share into more than 9 seats. The 172-seat majority threshold remains the reference line, and the next update will show whether this week's shift persists.
The tightest projection in the country is Central Newfoundland, where the margin is under 1 point. Other competitive ridings include Beaches—East York and Scarborough Southwest. In total, 49 ridings sit within a 5-point margin — these are the contests most likely to determine the majority threshold.
The seat projection shifted by 4 seats from the previous update. The Liberals gained 4 seats to reach 201 while the Conservatives fell 4 to 110, tracking a 1-point decline in the CPC polling average to 34% with LPC holding at 44%. The NDP, Bloc, and Greens all held steady at 9, 21, and 2 seats respectively.