As of October 30, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 227 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 79. The national polling average stands at LPC 46%, CPC 31%, NDP 11%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is >99%.
Compared with the previous point, the Conservatives lose 2 seats (79), the Liberals gain 1 seat (227), the NDP gain 1 seat (14).
The majority threshold is 172 seats. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline, and the riding directory for all 343 local projections.