As of August 10, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 189 of 343 seats and the Conservatives at 119, with the Bloc Québécois at 23, the NDP at 10, and the Greens at 2. The national polling average stands at LPC 43%, CPC 35%, NDP 9%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 93%.
Compared with the July 30 point, the Liberals gain 1 seat, the Conservatives gain 1, and the NDP loses 2, while the Bloc and Greens are unchanged. Four new polls entered the average this cycle, from Liaison, Léger, Nanos and Abacus; they held the LPC and CPC averages steady and moved the NDP down 1 point. Near the steep sections of the seats-to-votes curve, shifts of a single point can flip individual ridings without moving the topline.
The majority threshold is 172 seats. Three federal by-elections are scheduled for August 31 in Beaches—East York, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord and North Vancouver—Capilano; certified results will be folded into the model once they are official. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline and the riding directory for all 343 local projections.