As of July 20, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, the Conservatives at 114, the Bloc Québécois at 21, the NDP at 9, and the Greens at 2. The national polling average stands at LPC 44%, CPC 35%, NDP 9%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 98%, with a 95% seat interval of 172–230 for the Liberals and 83–137 for the Conservatives.
This cycle folds in five new national polls — two Liaison trackers, two Abacus waves, and the latest Nanos four-week average — covering fieldwork from mid-June through July 18. Their combined effect on the weighted average was nil: every party's national number is identical to the June 29 update, and the seat totals are unchanged from the previous point.
Nanos preferred-prime-minister tracking has Mark Carney at 51.5% and Pierre Poilievre at 23%. The majority threshold is 172 seats. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline, and the riding directory for all 343 local projections.
The tightest projection in the country is Central Newfoundland, where the Liberal and Conservative candidates are separated by less than half a point. Other competitive ridings include Beaches—East York in Toronto and Scarborough Southwest. In total, 49 ridings sit within a 5-point margin — these are the contests most likely to determine whether the Liberals reach or exceed 172 seats.
The seat projection is identical to the June 29 update, but that stability masks underlying movement. The Liberal polling average has held at 44% for four consecutive cycles, while the Conservatives have ticked up slightly in individual polls without moving the weighted average. The Bloc Québécois remains the most stable party at 6% nationally (21 seats in Quebec). The NDP at 9% and Greens at 3% continue to project to single-digit seat counts.