Liberals hold 197 seats with 98% majority probability. LPC 44% polling lead over CPC 35%. Seat projections, scenario analysis, and riding-level detail. The national polling average stands at LPC 44%, CPC 35%, NDP 9%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 98%.
Seat projections are unchanged from the previous point — movement in the polling average was not large enough to flip any riding.
The majority threshold is 172 seats. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline, and the riding directory for all 343 local projections.
The tightest projection in the country is Central Newfoundland, where the margin is under 1 point. Other competitive ridings include Beaches—East York and Scarborough Southwest. In total, 49 ridings sit within a 5-point margin — these are the contests most likely to determine the majority threshold.
The seat projection is unchanged from the previous update. Movement in the polling average was not large enough to flip any riding, with LPC 44% and CPC 35% holding steady. The 197-seat Liberal projection and 98% majority probability remain identical to the prior cycle.