As of June 29, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, with the Conservatives at 114. The national polling average stands at LPC 44%, CPC 35%, NDP 9%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 98%.
Seat projections are unchanged from the previous point — movement in the polling average was not large enough to flip any riding.
The majority threshold is 172 seats. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline, and the riding directory for all 343 local projections.