As of September 23, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 219 of 343 seats, the Conservatives at 87, the NDP at 14, the Bloc Québécois at 21 and the Greens at 2. The national polling average stands at LPC 45%, CPC 32%, NDP 11%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is >99%, with a 95% range of 188 to 250 Liberal seats. This point adds three surveys published since the previous update: the latest Liaison Strategies tracker wave and two weekly Nanos Research tracking waves.
Every party's seat projection and every figure in the rounded polling average is the same as at the previous point. The new surveys were broadly in line with the existing average, so adding them left the published numbers where they were. In Nanos preferred-prime-minister tracking, Mark Carney stands at 58.6%, compared with 55.2% in the wave used at the previous point; Pierre Poilievre is at 21.3% in both.
The majority threshold is 172 seats; the Liberal projection of 219 sits above it, and the >99% majority probability describes the spread of simulated outcomes rather than a fixed result. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations became vacant on September 18, bringing the number of open seats awaiting a by-election to six; no by-election has yet been called. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline, and the riding directory for all 343 local projections.