As of July 30, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 188 of 343 seats and the Conservatives at 118, with the NDP at 12, the Bloc Québécois at 23, and the Greens at 2. The national polling average stands at LPC 43%, CPC 35%, NDP 10%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 92%.
Compared with the previous point, the Liberals gain 1 seat to 188, the Conservatives lose 4 to 118, the NDP gain 2 to 12, and the Bloc gains 1 to 23. Two changes drive this midweek update together: newly added polls from Angus Reid and Nanos, and a methodology revision to the seat model's swing calculation, adopted after backtesting against the 2025 election. Seat movement in this entry therefore reflects both new data and the revised method, not voter movement alone.
The majority threshold is 172 seats, and the projection of 188 sits above it; the 92% majority probability tracks how often simulations clear that line. Details of the methodology change are documented on the Methodology page. Every figure traces to the published timeline; see the riding directory for all 343 local projections.