As of September 4, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, the Conservatives at 109, the Bloc Québécois at 23, the NDP at 12 and the Greens at 2. The national polling average stands at LPC 44%, CPC 34%, NDP 10%, BQ 7% and GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 98%. Two polls entered the average this week: the Nanos four-week track ending August 28 (Liberals 43.7%, Conservatives 32.6%, NDP 12.0%) and an Ipsos survey for Global News taken August 26–27 (Liberals 44%, Conservatives 33%, NDP 10%). Both sit close to the running average, and the rounded average and the seat projection are unchanged for every party.
Elections Canada has published results for the August 31 by-elections, and the model now uses them. In Chicoutimi—Le Fjord the Liberals took 51.6% to the Bloc's 32.8% and the Conservatives' 12.6%; in Beaches—East York the Liberals won 55.8% against the NDP's 25.6%; in North Vancouver—Capilano the Liberals won 58.6% to the Conservatives' 29.2%, with the Greens at 8.7%. The first two are validated; North Vancouver—Capilano is preliminary pending validation. Each riding's projection now starts from its by-election result rather than its April 2025 result, and the riding pages show both. The visible effect is in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, which moves from Tossup to Safe Liberal; the other two were already rated Safe Liberal.
The majority threshold is 172 seats. With the Liberal and Conservative averages flat for a third consecutive update, the questions for the coming weeks are whether the Conservatives can recover from the 29–35% band the recent polls place them in, and whether the NDP's 10% translates into more than the 12 seats currently projected. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline, and the riding directory for all 343 local projections.