As of September 10, 2026, the RidingWatch model projects the Liberals at 197 of 343 seats, the Conservatives at 109, the Bloc at 23, the NDP at 12 and the Greens at 2. The national polling average stands at LPC 44%, CPC 34%, NDP 10%, BQ 6%, GRN 3%. Across 10,000 simulations, the probability of a Liberal majority is 98%. This point adds the latest Angus Reid Institute survey and folds in an EKOS survey from early August that the summer sweeps had missed.
Every seat count is unchanged from the previous point. In the rounded polling average the Bloc is down 1 point to 6%, while the other four parties are unchanged. The Bloc movement comes from the backfilled EKOS survey, whose Quebec figures now carry a small, time-decayed weight in the average, and it is not large enough to move any Quebec riding across its projection threshold, so the seat picture is identical to the previous update.
The majority threshold is 172 seats; the Liberal projection of 197 sits above it, and the 98% majority probability describes the spread of outcomes across the simulations rather than a fixed result. Next to watch are the weekly Nanos and Liaison tracker waves due in the coming days and whether the monthly pollsters that have not yet reported in September confirm the tracker picture. Projections are probability statements built from public polls — see the Methodology page for the full pipeline, and the riding directory for all 343 local projections.