London—Fanshawe — Election Outlook & Projection
Where this riding stands
The RidingWatch model currently projects the NDP at 34.3% in London—Fanshawe, 1 points ahead of the Liberals at 33.3%, with the Conservatives at 31.3%. Across 10,000 simulations the seat goes to the NDP in 46% of them, the Liberals in 37%, the Conservatives in 18%. The simulations put the NDP's share anywhere from 29% to 40%, and the Liberals' from 27% to 39%.
In April 2025 the Conservatives won here with 41%, 10 points ahead of the Liberals. That was a change from 2021, when the NDP took the seat. Compared with the 2025 result, the current projection has the Conservatives down 9.7, the NDP up 6.3, the Liberals up 2.3 points. These shifts come from the national polling swing applied to this riding's past results — not from riding-level polling, which the model does not have.
The sitting member is Kurt Holman (Conservative), MP since 2025.
Rating: Tossup — the leading parties are within a few points of each other. In practical terms, the leading parties are within a few points and the simulations split between them; this is one of the ridings where individual votes carry the most weight. Within 10 points of the lead: the Liberals (33.3%), the Conservatives (31.3%). Every vote counts toward a party's national total regardless of the local outcome. The Strategic Voting Assistant below shows how these standings look for a specific goal, including simply voting for your first choice.
Sitting member
About this riding
Located in southwestern Ontario, this riding encompasses London and portions extending to Fanshawe township. The area includes residential neighbourhoods, commercial areas, and some industrial zones. The city of London serves as a major regional centre with significant employment in services, retail, education, and healthcare. The local economy includes Western University as a major institution. The Thames River provides environmental context. The riding reflects London's character as a mid-sized regional city. Population is concentrated in urban London with rural township portions.
Projected Vote Share — Next Federal Election
Projected using a blended proportional-uniform swing model with incumbency adjustments. Based on the current national polling average and regional crosstabs as of 2026-09-14.
Vote-share trend
2021 and 2025 are official results for this riding; the third point is the current model projection. No estimated historical points are shown.
2025 Election Results vs. Current Projection
| Party | 2025 Vote % | Projected % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 31% | 33.3% | +2.3 |
| Conservative | 41% | 31.3% | -9.7 |
| NDP | 28% | 34.3% | +6.3 |
| Green | 0% | 1% | +1 |
Strategic Voting Assistant
Reasoning uses the current projected shares for this riding. Viability = within 10 points of the leader or at least 15%.
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About the Model
This projection is generated by the RidingWatch statistical model, which combines national polling data with historical election results to estimate vote shares and likely outcomes in each of Canada's 343 federal ridings.
The model begins with a weighted blend of results from the 2025 and 2021 federal elections, then applies the polling swing to each riding using a mostly-uniform (90/10 uniform/proportional) swing method — the national swing, adjusted by the province's pooled deviation where pollsters publish regional crosstabs. No pollster house effects are applied. Incumbency is not assumed: only first-term MPs (+1) and party leaders (+2) receive an adjustment. Uncertainty is estimated through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with correlated regional errors.
Projections are updated as new polling data becomes available. All estimates are probabilistic — they represent the most likely outcome given current information, not a guarantee of any result. Actual election outcomes depend on factors the model cannot fully capture, including local campaigns, turnout variation, and late-breaking events.