Parry Sound—Muskoka — Election Outlook & Projection
Where this riding stands
The RidingWatch model currently projects the Conservatives at 45% in Parry Sound—Muskoka, 2 points ahead of the Liberals at 43%, with the NDP at 9%, the Greens at 3%. Across 10,000 simulations the seat goes to the Conservatives in 62% of them, the Liberals in 38%. The simulations put the Conservatives' share anywhere from 39% to 51%, and the Liberals' from 37% to 49%.
In April 2025 the Conservatives won here with 52%, 9 points ahead of the Liberals. The Conservatives also held it in 2021. Compared with the 2025 result, the current projection has the Conservatives down 7, the NDP up 5, the Greens up 3 points. These shifts come from the national polling swing applied to this riding's past results — not from riding-level polling, which the model does not have.
The sitting member is Scott Aitchison (Conservative), MP since 2018.
Rating: Lean Conservative — the Conservatives hold a narrow projected lead. In practical terms, a 2-point margin is inside the range where turnout, candidates and local issues regularly decide the result. Within 10 points of the lead: the Liberals (43%). Every vote counts toward a party's national total regardless of the local outcome. The Strategic Voting Assistant below shows how these standings look for a specific goal, including simply voting for your first choice.
Sitting member
About this riding
Located in central Ontario, this riding encompasses Parry Sound and Muskoka areas north of the GTA. The region is characterized by forests, lakes, Canadian Shield terrain, and cottage country. Communities are dispersed through rural areas and small towns. The local economy includes forestry, tourism, recreation services, and cottage-related activity. The environment provides significant recreational and economic value. Population is sparse with seasonal variation from cottagers. The region maintains strong natural heritage.
Projected Vote Share — Next Federal Election
Projected using a blended proportional-uniform swing model with incumbency adjustments. Based on the current national polling average and regional crosstabs as of 2026-09-14.
Vote-share trend
2021 and 2025 are official results for this riding; the third point is the current model projection. No estimated historical points are shown.
2025 Election Results vs. Current Projection
| Party | 2025 Vote % | Projected % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Conservative | 52% | 45% | -7 |
| NDP | 4% | 9% | +5 |
| Green | 0% | 3% | +3 |
Strategic Voting Assistant
Reasoning uses the current projected shares for this riding. Viability = within 10 points of the leader or at least 15%.
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About the Model
This projection is generated by the RidingWatch statistical model, which combines national polling data with historical election results to estimate vote shares and likely outcomes in each of Canada's 343 federal ridings.
The model begins with a weighted blend of results from the 2025 and 2021 federal elections, then applies the polling swing to each riding using a mostly-uniform (90/10 uniform/proportional) swing method — the national swing, adjusted by the province's pooled deviation where pollsters publish regional crosstabs. No pollster house effects are applied. Incumbency is not assumed: only first-term MPs (+1) and party leaders (+2) receive an adjustment. Uncertainty is estimated through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with correlated regional errors.
Projections are updated as new polling data becomes available. All estimates are probabilistic — they represent the most likely outcome given current information, not a guarantee of any result. Actual election outcomes depend on factors the model cannot fully capture, including local campaigns, turnout variation, and late-breaking events.