Windsor West — Election Outlook & Projection
Where this riding stands
The RidingWatch model currently projects the Liberals at 35% in Windsor West, level with the NDP at 35%, with the Conservatives at 28%, the Greens at 2%. Across 10,000 simulations the seat goes to the Liberals in 48% of them, the NDP in 46%, the Conservatives in 6%. The simulations put the Liberals' share anywhere from 29% to 41%, and the NDP's from 29% to 40%.
In April 2025 the Conservatives won here with 39%, 8 points ahead of the Liberals. That was a change from 2021, when the NDP took the seat. Compared with the 2025 result, the current projection has the Conservatives down 11, the NDP up 7, the Liberals up 4 points. These shifts come from the national polling swing applied to this riding's past results — not from riding-level polling, which the model does not have.
The sitting member is Harb Gill (Conservative), MP since 2025.
Rating: Tossup — the leading parties are within a few points of each other. In practical terms, the leading parties are within a few points and the simulations split between them; this is one of the ridings where individual votes carry the most weight. Within 10 points of the lead: the NDP (35%), the Conservatives (28%). Every vote counts toward a party's national total regardless of the local outcome. The Strategic Voting Assistant below shows how these standings look for a specific goal, including simply voting for your first choice.
Sitting member
About this riding
Located in western Windsor in southwestern Ontario, this riding encompasses western portions of Windsor city. The area features residential neighbourhoods, commercial corridors, and some industrial areas. The local economy includes manufacturing, services, retail, and automotive-related employment. The neighbourhood reflects Windsor's working-class and industrial character. Population includes families and established residents. The area maintains industrial heritage.
Projected Vote Share — Next Federal Election
Projected using a blended proportional-uniform swing model with incumbency adjustments. Based on the current national polling average and regional crosstabs as of 2026-09-14.
Vote-share trend
2021 and 2025 are official results for this riding; the third point is the current model projection. No estimated historical points are shown.
2025 Election Results vs. Current Projection
| Party | 2025 Vote % | Projected % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 31% | 35% | +4 |
| Conservative | 39% | 28% | -11 |
| NDP | 28% | 35% | +7 |
| Green | 0.7% | 2% | +1.3 |
Strategic Voting Assistant
Reasoning uses the current projected shares for this riding. Viability = within 10 points of the leader or at least 15%.
Explore More Ridings
Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Niagara West Simcoe—Grey
About the Model
This projection is generated by the RidingWatch statistical model, which combines national polling data with historical election results to estimate vote shares and likely outcomes in each of Canada's 343 federal ridings.
The model begins with a weighted blend of results from the 2025 and 2021 federal elections, then applies the polling swing to each riding using a mostly-uniform (90/10 uniform/proportional) swing method — the national swing, adjusted by the province's pooled deviation where pollsters publish regional crosstabs. No pollster house effects are applied. Incumbency is not assumed: only first-term MPs (+1) and party leaders (+2) receive an adjustment. Uncertainty is estimated through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with correlated regional errors.
Projections are updated as new polling data becomes available. All estimates are probabilistic — they represent the most likely outcome given current information, not a guarantee of any result. Actual election outcomes depend on factors the model cannot fully capture, including local campaigns, turnout variation, and late-breaking events.